The question: at 36,000 km, “killer electrons” charge spacecraft surfaces. Can we learn what pumps them up, per local-time sector, well enough to plan around?
Faster solar wind reliably pumps electron flux about two days later, in all four local-time sectors — and the ordering (midnight sector strongest, noon weakest) came out exactly as we staked it in advance. That is the shape spacecraft-charging planning needs.
The amplitude. Direction and ordering are earned; the size of the response is not yet confirmed to our bar, and we say so rather than round up.
| gap | what closes it |
|---|---|
| the storm side is genuinely under-sampled: one satellite at one longitude sees each sector only ~6 storm-hours a day | electron feeds from additional GEO longitudes — any operator’s monitor helps — or simply a longer window |
| amplitude confidence on the calm side | a longer observing window under the same pre-registered rules |
GOES relativistic-electron and magnetometer feeds (NOAA), solar-wind drivers from NASA OMNI/DSCOVR.
Every claim on this page comes from a pre-registered analysis: the hypothesis and its pass/fail rule were committed to a ledger before the data was touched, results were reproduced bit-for-bit, decoy signals ran as tripwires, and refused hypotheses stay on record. The complete gap register — data sources, refused hypotheses, and open staked predictions — is published alongside this atlas (how to read it).
Nervous Machine