The question: in low orbit, radiation dose depends on where you are — the South Atlantic Anomaly, the slot, the belt edges. What does a storm actually do to dose in each region?
Everywhere else, storms push dose up. In the SAA core it drops first, then recovers. We staked that prediction across five regions in advance — and it held in exactly the one region where it should, and failed everywhere else. A prediction that is right in exactly the right place is worth more than one that is vaguely right everywhere.
The post-storm dose-settling profile is measured in the slot region — the “how long until it calms down” number planners ask for. Direction earned; exact numbers still building confidence.
| gap | what closes it |
|---|---|
| the polar inner-belt boundary has never been sampled from our source orbit | a hosted sensor or a dataset from a different orbit |
| confidence (as opposed to direction) is still building across all cells | more storm seasons; the confidence-building question itself is a named, open line of work |
POES/MetOp energetic-particle detectors (NOAA), storm windows from NASA OMNI/Dst — all fetches sha-pinned, all thresholds pre-registered.
Every claim on this page comes from a pre-registered analysis: the hypothesis and its pass/fail rule were committed to a ledger before the data was touched, results were reproduced bit-for-bit, decoy signals ran as tripwires, and refused hypotheses stay on record. The complete gap register — data sources, refused hypotheses, and open staked predictions — is published alongside this atlas (how to read it).
Nervous Machine